Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of forming a death cross as the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) nears a bearish crossover with the 200-day SMA. Historically, a death cross has preceded notable rallies in Bitcoin price. On-chain data is also favoring bullish traders as signs of a bottom formation emerge. BTC trades at $105,049 today, November 12, with a slight 0.5% gain in 24 hours.
Looming Death Cross Signals Bitcoin Price Rally to $133,000
BTC is close to creating a death cross on the one-day chart after weeks of bearish price movement. However, past data shows that this crossover has often marked a bottom for the king coin and preceded a massive rally to the upside.
For instance, in April 2025, a death cross emerged on the daily chart that saw the price briefly crash from $83,000 to $74,000. However, the downturn was short-lived as the price quickly rebounded with an over 60% rally within three months to $123,000.
The price of Bitcoin also saw a similar move in August 2024. After a death cross was confirmed, the price underwent a brief crash to $52,000 and formed a local bottom. It later rebounded to $108,000 by the end of the year.
If history rhymes and the 50-day SMA confirms a crossover below the 200-day SMA, it could mark the beginning of a stronger uptrend for BTC price. Moreover, the RSI is also testing the same resistance that it did in August 2024 and April 2025 before the death cross formed, and a parabolic rally ensued.
As seen in the daily Bitcoin price chart, the death cross is not the only indicator that a bottom may be near. A falling wedge pattern has also emerged. This indicates that there is potential for a bullish reversal if the price can overcome resistance at $107,500. If this happens, the next leg up might culminate in a 23% price surge to $133,000, which is the height of the falling wedge pattern.
However, if Bitcoin faces rejection at the $107,500 level again, and bears push the price below the support level of the falling wedge, it might kickstart a strong bearish reversal, invalidating the bullish thesis.
On-Chain Data Flips Bullish
Shortly after a Sygnum Bank report predicted a bullish Q4 for crypto assets, on-chain data support that BTC might be close to a massive price rally. Two key metrics, the Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit (NUP) and the Bitcoin Supply in Loss, suggest that the Bitcoin bottom might be in.
CryptoQuant analyst CoinCare noted that the NUP has dropped to 0.476, a sign that the selling pressure has dropped. The analysts opined that each time this metric fell below 0.5, BTC created a short-term bottom.
Another analyst also noted that over five million BTC sit at a loss. While this might appear bearish, they mentioned that it could be a sign that a bottom is in. The last time such a heavy supply was sitting at a loss was on April 4 this year, right after a death cross emerged, and a rally ensued.
“Once again, there were more than 5 million Bitcoins in loss. The last time this happened was on April 7, during the ATL of 2025… During mid-2024, the same situation also occurred and marked the bottom at that time,” the analyst said.
Based on the technical outlook and the on-chain data, Bitcoin price could be on the verge of a strong move to the upside. However, strong macro factors are needed to drive an uptrend.
